Time series analysis of road traffic accident in Rivers State, Nigeria

Abstract

Background: Transport plays a significant role in the activities of man. Increase usage of road transport raises the likelihood of the occurrence of road traffic accident (RTA). Road accidents are considered major causes of death in the world today and thus are major health challenges all over the world. Accidents on our roads are serious problems that need attention. Road traffic accidents would increase in number if tangible efforts are not made to tackle the problem.

Objectives: The aim of the study is to fit a statistical model that would describe the accident data of Rivers State, Nigeria.

Methodology: Monthly road accident data for eight years beginning from January 2010 to December 2017 collected from the Federal Road Safety Corps, Rivers State Served as the data for the analysis. Box-Jenkins methods were employed in the analysis and the statistical software used was Eviews.

Results: The study   revealed that there was no seasonality in the data. This is contrary to the belief that accidents in this part of the world are seasonal with higher occurrences in the months of September, October, November and December. The implication is that road accident within the study area occurs any time in the year and not only during specific seasons. 

Conclusion: The data can be modeled using Box-Jenkins methods. The ARIMA (2,1,0) model is adequate to describe the RTA data of Rivers State, Nigeria.

Unique contribution: An ARIMA model for the RTA data of Rivers State was developed. The study revealed that the RTA data of Rivers State is non-seasonal contrary to the general belief that accidents are seasonal.

Key recommendation: Further studies should be examined to determine while road accident still occur despite government efforts.